Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 0.009893 0.011178 0.012590 0.014260 0.016187 0.018347 0.020957
2024-12-15 0.007788 0.009499 0.011548 0.014203 0.017573 0.021740 0.027334
2024-12-22 0.006400 0.008193 0.010464 0.013583 0.017804 0.023384 0.031436
2024-12-29 0.005621 0.007483 0.009952 0.013512 0.018592 0.025701 0.036620
2025-01-05 0.005267 0.007263 0.010019 0.014175 0.020403 0.029595 0.044573
2025-01-12 0.004640 0.006578 0.009343 0.013662 0.020399 0.030781 0.048550
2025-01-19 0.004163 0.006052 0.008825 0.013300 0.020538 0.032151 0.052961
2025-01-26 0.003854 0.005737 0.008581 0.013314 0.021247 0.034486 0.059316
2025-02-02 0.003721 0.005673 0.008706 0.013917 0.022977 0.038728 0.069722
2025-02-09 0.003453 0.005370 0.008420 0.013803 0.023453 0.040828 0.076456
2025-02-16 0.003262 0.005174 0.008285 0.013923 0.024345 0.043776 0.085323
2025-02-23 0.003035 0.004895 0.007987 0.013719 0.024608 0.045556 0.092068
2025-03-02 0.002901 0.004772 0.007953 0.014013 0.025894 0.049605 0.104655
2025-03-09 0.002726 0.004563 0.007754 0.013984 0.026561 0.052528 0.115394
2025-03-16 0.002483 0.004216 0.007277 0.013374 0.025975 0.052728 0.119769
2025-03-23 0.002341 0.004036 0.007089 0.013303 0.026494 0.055387 0.130689
2025-03-30 0.002305 0.004048 0.007255 0.013955 0.028628 0.061990 0.153144
2025-04-06 0.002129 0.003785 0.006877 0.013451 0.028161 0.062473 0.159347
2025-04-13 0.001986 0.003574 0.006583 0.013095 0.027982 0.063623 0.167672
2025-04-20 0.001896 0.003459 0.006468 0.013109 0.028660 0.066991 0.183212
2025-04-27 0.001874 0.003472 0.006612 0.013702 0.030786 0.074402 0.212872
2025-05-04 0.001782 0.003341 0.006448 0.013590 0.031177 0.077301 0.229037
2025-05-11 0.001718 0.003263 0.006388 0.013707 0.032159 0.081976 0.252334